October 8, 2007
The goals, long-awaited draft AB 1007 report on increasing alternative fuel use in the state for the most part positions natural gas as a strong contributor to California’s petroleum displacement and greenhouse gas reduction and contains many of the NGV industry’s policy recommendations.
The report, produced by the CEC and CARB, provides a State Alternative Fuels Plan, which includes an alternative fuels use strategy, recommended government actions, actions by fuel type, and estimated investments needed; a full fuel-cycle assessment for the fuels discussed (biofuels, renewable diesel and biodiesel, propane, electricity, natural gas, and hydrogen); alternative fuel use goals; “moderate case examples” of how alternative fuel markets might develop; a 2050 vision statement; economics; and fuels and trade policy.
A graph of the consumer payback period (the time it will take for consumers to recover the higher cost of an alternative fuel vehicle through lower fuel costs) shows the shortest recovery period by far is for natural gas—about two and half years if gasoline costs $2.50 per gallon and less than a year if it costs $6. The report assumes that consumers require a payback period of no more than seven years (the length of a standard car lease); it notes that most AFVs will be attractive at gasoline prices of $4 to $6 per gallon, and that “when low natural gas fuel and vehicle prices are assumed, natural gas vehicles are attractive at all gasoline prices.”
Natural gas is also the only alternative fuel expected to provide net savings while reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the near term (2007–2012); all the fuels are expected to become steadily more cost-effective through 2030.
By 2050, natural gas use in heavy-duty vehicles alone could represent about 36 percent of the freight and off-road vehicle fuel use—slightly more than diesel, the report says.
The report recommends a four-point strategy to meet alternative fuels goals:
· Promote alternative fuel blends with gasoline and diesel in the near and midterm, and stimulate innovation through development of a low-carbon fuel standard.
· Maximize alternative fuels in early-adopter market niches, such as heavy-duty, fleets, off-road, and ports in the near and midterm.
· Maximize use of alternative fuels in internal combustion engines and develop new transportation technologies, such as electric drive and hydrogen fuel cells, in the mid- to long term.
· Maximize the use of alternative fuels in mass transit, encourage smart growth and land-use planning to reduce vehicle miles and hours traveled, and encourage improved vehicle efficiency to increase fuel economy.
Courtesy of California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition (CNGVC), www.cngvc.org.